Summary and future forecast of China's Carbon Additive Market in the second quarter of 2021
1、 Review of Calcined Anthracite Coal Market
In the first half of 2021, the price of Ningxia calcined anthracite coal market showed a "U" trend under the common stimulation of various factors. Represented by the price of 92calcined anthracite coal in Ningxia, as of June 30, the price of 92c was 2486 yuan / ton, an increase of 181 yuan / ton or 7.28% over the beginning of the year; The price of 90C was 2260 yuan / ton, an increase of 130 yuan / ton or 0.6% over the beginning of the year.
In the first quarter, the price of calcined anthracite coal depends on the downstream reserve demand of the Spring Festival, and the demand increases by 1-1.5 times. In terms of supply, environmental protection rectification has been strengthened, and carbon enterprises have limited production by 50% - 70%. In addition, the rectification of Taixi Coal in Helan Mountain reserve has been strengthened, the supply of raw anthracite has been reduced, and the price trend continues to be strong. Weak supply and strong demand caused the high price of calcined coal carburizer to remain stable around the Spring Festival. After the festival, it entered the traditional off-season of demand, and the price of calcined coal carburizer fell rationally.
Second quarter: the domestic coal market continued to heat up. After entering may, the coal market rose wildly. After nine rounds of price increases, the price of anthracite soared rapidly, resulting in the continuous rise of the price of calcined coal carburizing agent, and the price soared to the highest level of the year at the end of June.
On the whole, in the first half of the year, Ningxia calcined anthracite coal market has deviated from the impact of the traditional light and peak seasons. Raw materials have become the main factor driving the price, and the price rise has also become the main factor driving the transaction.
2、 Market review of Calcined Petroleum Coke
In the first half of 2021, the market price of Liaoning petroleum coke carburizing agent showed an inverted "U" trend. As of June 30, the price of Calcined Petroleum Coke (C ≥ 98%, s ≤ 0.5%, particle size: 1-5mm) was 3700 yuan / ton, an increase of 200 yuan / ton or 5.71% over the beginning of the year. In the first half of the year, the trend of domestic Calcined Petroleum Coke was somewhat similar to that of raw petroleum coke, but in terms of range, the carburizing agent was weaker than that of raw materials, and the price of Calcined Petroleum Coke agent at some nodes was even weaker than that of petroleum coke.
In the first quarter, Calcined Petroleum Coke benefited from the increase in downstream demand and the rise in raw material prices. The price of Calcined Petroleum Coke sharply, with a low price of 3500 yuan / ton and a high price of 5000 yuan / ton, and the difference between high and low prices reached 1500 yuan / ton. In the second quarter, the end market had a certain impact on the demand for petroleum coke carbon enhancer. The substitutability between the same varieties and the downstream selection are also wider. In the second quarter, the whole Calcined Petroleum Coke market showed a downward trend, and the recovery was weak. Due to the high cost, the manufacturers of Calcined Petroleum Coke are struggling. In the environment of low profit or even powerlessness, the upstream raw materials of Graphite Petroleum Coke are changeable and the quality is worrying.
3、 Market review of Graphite Petroleum Coke
In the first half of 2021, the trend of Graphite Petroleum Coke is the same as that of calcined petroleum coke, showing an inverted "U" trend. Relying on the trend of raw petroleum coke, the trend is strong in the first quarter and weak in the second quarter, with a high point of 5300 yuan / ton and a low point of 4200 yuan / ton, with a price difference of 1100 yuan / ton.
4、Outlook for the second half of 2021
Beneficial factors
(1) There are bullish expectations for raw materials. The demand of the coal market peaked in the third quarter, and the price may continue to be high. In addition, with the intention of energy dual control policy in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, the anthracite market may continue to be high in the short term. In terms of petroleum coke, the refinery was restricted by processing profit in the third quarter, coupled with the maintenance plan, the domestic petroleum coke resources were tight, and the coke price was actively pushed up.
(2) Limited supply. With the development of environmental protection policies in the third and fourth quarters, coupled with the long-term low profit or even unprofitable operation, the operation of some enterprises is at an impasse, the number of discontinued manufacturers may continue to increase, and some may withdraw from the market.
(3) Exports increased. From January to may in 2021, the total export of carbon additive was 152700 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 24%. With the global economic recovery, the export continued to grow.
Negative factors
(1) Environmental protection policies. The implementation of "two highs and two controls" in some regions, and the production restriction in the terminal market may continue in the third and fourth quarters, which may have a certain impact on the consumption of carburetor.
(2) End market profit compression. In the second quarter, the profit of screw thread steel of blast furnace and electric furnace was compressed, even lower than the profit and loss point, which was insufficient to support the purchase price of raw materials. Although it was alleviated in early July, it was affected by many factors and there were many uncertain factors, but reducing cost and increasing efficiency is the goal that the steel plant continues to pursue.
(3) Disorderly competition continues. The mismatch between supply and demand in the carburetor market is difficult to improve in the short term. Low price competition may continue, accompanied by the decline of quality, or will seriously affect the downstream demand. There is substitutability among various varieties of carbon additive, so there may be a difficult period of change in the industry.
The point is that the insufficient support for the purchase price of raw materials was alleviated in early July, but affected by many factors and many uncertain factors, reducing cost and increasing efficiency is indeed the goal pursued by the steel plant.
(3) Disorderly competition continues. The mismatch between supply and demand in the carburetor market is difficult to improve in the short term. Low price competition may continue, accompanied by the decline of quality, or will seriously affect the downstream demand. There is substitutability among various varieties of Carbon Additive, so there may be a difficult period of change in the industry.
2021年第二季度中国增碳剂市场总结及后市预测
一、煅煤增碳剂市场回顾
2021年上半年宁夏煅煤增碳剂市场在多方面因素共同刺激下，价格呈现“U”形走势。以宁夏92煅煤增碳剂价格行情为代表，截止到6月30日，92C价格2486元/吨，较年初上涨181元/吨，涨幅7.28%；90C价格2260元/吨，较年初上涨130元/吨，涨幅0.6%。
一季度：煅煤增碳剂价格依托于春节下游备库需，需求增加1-1.5倍。供应方面，环保整顿力度加强，碳素企业限产50%—70%，加之贺兰山保护区内太西煤整顿力度加大，原料无烟煤供应减少，价格走势持续偏强。供弱需强，造成春节前后，煅煤增碳剂价格高位持稳。节后进入传统的需求淡季，煅煤增碳剂价格理性回落。
二季度：国内煤炭市场持续升温，进入五月份之后，煤炭市场疯狂上涨，九轮涨价之后无烟煤价格迅猛冲高，致使煅煤增碳剂价格持续走高，6月底价格冲之年内高位。
整体来看，上半年宁夏煅煤增碳剂市场已经有些偏离传统的淡旺季的影响，原料成为推动价格的主要因素，而价格上涨也成为推动成交的主要因素。
二、石油焦增碳剂市场回顾
2021年上半年辽宁石油焦增碳剂市场价格呈现倒“U”形走势。截止到6月30日，石油焦增碳剂价格（C≥98%，S≤0.5%，粒度：1-5mm）3700元/吨，较年初上涨200元/吨，涨幅5.71%。上半年国内石油焦增碳剂的走势和原料石油焦的走势有些相似，但是从幅度来看增碳剂却弱于原料，部分节点石油焦增碳剂的价格甚至弱于石油焦的价格。
一季度石油焦增碳剂受益于下游需求增加，加上原材料价格上涨，增碳剂价格上涨较为猛烈，价格低点3500元/吨，高点5000元/吨，高低价差达到了1500元/吨。二季度终端市场对石油焦增碳剂需求产生了一定的影响，相同品种之间的可替代性，下游选择也更宽广。二季度整个石油焦增碳剂市场呈现下滑的态势，且回暖无力。由于成本高位，石油焦增碳剂厂家步履维艰，在微利甚至无力的环境中，石油焦增碳剂上游原料多变，品质堪忧。
三、石墨化增碳剂市场回顾
2021年上半年石墨化增碳剂走势同于石油焦增碳剂呈现倒“U”型走势，依托于原料石油焦的走势，一季度走势偏强，二季度价格走势偏弱，高点5300元/吨，低点4200元/吨，价差达1100元/吨。
2021下半年展望
利多因素
（1）原料存在看涨预期。煤炭市场三季度需求高峰，价格或持续高位，加上宁夏、内蒙古区能源双控政策方面的意向，短期内无烟煤市场或持续高位。石油焦方面，三季度炼厂受加工利润制约加上检修计划，国产石油焦资源偏紧，焦价积极推涨。
（2）供应受限。随着三四季度环保政策发力，加之长期的微利甚至无利运行，部分企业运营陷入僵局，停产厂家或继续增加，部分或退出市场。
（3）出口增加。2021年1-5月份增碳剂出口总量15.27万吨，同比增24%，随着全球经济复苏，出口呈继续增长态势。
利空因素
（1）环保政策发力。部分地区“两高双控”落地，终端市场限产力度或在三四季度持续发力，对增碳剂消耗量或存在一定影响。
（2）终端市场利润压缩。二季度高炉、电炉螺纹钢利润压缩，甚至低于盈亏点，对原材料采购价格支撑不足，虽然7月初有所缓解，但是受诸多因素影响，不确定因素较多，但是降本增效确是钢厂不断追求的目标。
（3）无序竞争持续。增碳剂市场供需错配形势短期内难以改善，低价竞争或将持续，伴随着品质下降，或将严重影响下游需求。而增碳剂各品种之间存在可替代性，所以此长彼长，行业或存在一段艰难变革期。
点，对原材料采购价格支撑不足，虽然7月初有所缓解，但是受诸多因素影响，不确定因素较多，但是降本增效确是钢厂不断追求的目标。
（3）无序竞争持续。增碳剂市场供需错配形势短期内难以改善，低价竞争或将持续，伴随着品质下降，或将严重影响下游需求。而增碳剂各品种之间存在可替代性，所以此长彼长，行业或存在一段艰难变革期。