1、 Review of Calcined Anthracite Coal Market
In the first half of 2021, the price of Ningxia calcined anthracite coal market showed a "U" trend under the common stimulation of various factors. Represented by the price of 92calcined anthracite coal in Ningxia, as of June 30, the price of 92c was 2486 yuan / ton, an increase of 181 yuan / ton or 7.28% over the beginning of the year; The price of 90C was 2260 yuan / ton, an increase of 130 yuan / ton or 0.6% over the beginning of the year.
In the first quarter, the price of calcined anthracite coal depends on the downstream reserve demand of the Spring Festival, and the demand increases by 1-1.5 times. In terms of supply, environmental protection rectification has been strengthened, and carbon enterprises have limited production by 50% - 70%. In addition, the rectification of Taixi Coal in Helan Mountain reserve has been strengthened, the supply of raw anthracite has been reduced, and the price trend continues to be strong. Weak supply and strong demand caused the high price of calcined coal carburizer to remain stable around the Spring Festival. After the festival, it entered the traditional off-season of demand, and the price of calcined coal carburizer fell rationally.
Second quarter: the domestic coal market continued to heat up. After entering may, the coal market rose wildly. After nine rounds of price increases, the price of anthracite soared rapidly, resulting in the continuous rise of the price of calcined coal carburizing agent, and the price soared to the highest level of the year at the end of June.
On the whole, in the first half of the year, Ningxia calcined anthracite coal market has deviated from the impact of the traditional light and peak seasons. Raw materials have become the main factor driving the price, and the price rise has also become the main factor driving the transaction.
2、 Market review of Calcined Petroleum Coke
In the first half of 2021, the market price of Liaoning petroleum coke carburizing agent showed an inverted "U" trend. As of June 30, the price of Calcined Petroleum Coke (C ≥ 98%, s ≤ 0.5%, particle size: 1-5mm) was 3700 yuan / ton, an increase of 200 yuan / ton or 5.71% over the beginning of the year. In the first half of the year, the trend of domestic Calcined Petroleum Coke was somewhat similar to that of raw petroleum coke, but in terms of range, the carburizing agent was weaker than that of raw materials, and the price of Calcined Petroleum Coke agent at some nodes was even weaker than that of petroleum coke.
In the first quarter, Calcined Petroleum Coke benefited from the increase in downstream demand and the rise in raw material prices. The price of Calcined Petroleum Coke sharply, with a low price of 3500 yuan / ton and a high price of 5000 yuan / ton, and the difference between high and low prices reached 1500 yuan / ton. In the second quarter, the end market had a certain impact on the demand for petroleum coke carbon enhancer. The substitutability between the same varieties and the downstream selection are also wider. In the second quarter, the whole Calcined Petroleum Coke market showed a downward trend, and the recovery was weak. Due to the high cost, the manufacturers of Calcined Petroleum Coke are struggling. In the environment of low profit or even powerlessness, the upstream raw materials of Graphite Petroleum Coke are changeable and the quality is worrying.
3、 Market review of Graphite Petroleum Coke
In the first half of 2021, the trend of Graphite Petroleum Coke is the same as that of calcined petroleum coke, showing an inverted "U" trend. Relying on the trend of raw petroleum coke, the trend is strong in the first quarter and weak in the second quarter, with a high point of 5300 yuan / ton and a low point of 4200 yuan / ton, with a price difference of 1100 yuan / ton.
4、Outlook for the second half of 2021
(1) There are bullish expectations for raw materials. The demand of the coal market peaked in the third quarter, and the price may continue to be high. In addition, with the intention of energy dual control policy in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, the anthracite market may continue to be high in the short term. In terms of petroleum coke, the refinery was restricted by processing profit in the third quarter, coupled with the maintenance plan, the domestic petroleum coke resources were tight, and the coke price was actively pushed up.
(2) Limited supply. With the development of environmental protection policies in the third and fourth quarters, coupled with the long-term low profit or even unprofitable operation, the operation of some enterprises is at an impasse, the number of discontinued manufacturers may continue to increase, and some may withdraw from the market.
(3) Exports increased. From January to may in 2021, the total export of carbon additive was 152700 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 24%. With the global economic recovery, the export continued to grow.
(1) Environmental protection policies. The implementation of "two highs and two controls" in some regions, and the production restriction in the terminal market may continue in the third and fourth quarters, which may have a certain impact on the consumption of carburetor.
(2) End market profit compression. In the second quarter, the profit of screw thread steel of blast furnace and electric furnace was compressed, even lower than the profit and loss point, which was insufficient to support the purchase price of raw materials. Although it was alleviated in early July, it was affected by many factors and there were many uncertain factors, but reducing cost and increasing efficiency is the goal that the steel plant continues to pursue.
(3) Disorderly competition continues. The mismatch between supply and demand in the carburetor market is difficult to improve in the short term. Low price competition may continue, accompanied by the decline of quality, or will seriously affect the downstream demand. There is substitutability among various varieties of carbon additive, so there may be a difficult period of change in the industry.
The point is that the insufficient support for the purchase price of raw materials was alleviated in early July, but affected by many factors and many uncertain factors, reducing cost and increasing efficiency is indeed the goal pursued by the steel plant.
(3) Disorderly competition continues. The mismatch between supply and demand in the carburetor market is difficult to improve in the short term. Low price competition may continue, accompanied by the decline of quality, or will seriously affect the downstream demand. There is substitutability among various varieties of Carbon Additive, so there may be a difficult period of change in the industry.